పార్టీల పంచాయితీ

తోలి దశ పంచాయితీ ఎన్నికల ప్రహసనం ముగిసింది. ఎవరికి వారే మేమే గెలిచామని చెప్పుకొన్నారు. కాని ఒక విషయం మాత్రం స్పష్టమయ్యింది. కాంగ్రెస్ పరిస్థితి మరీ అంత ఘోరంగా ఏమి లేదు..తెలుగుదేశం కూడా పుంజుకున్నట్లు కనిపించింది. ఇక అనుకోన్నట్లుగానే వై.ఎస్.ఆర్  కాంగ్రెస్ కూడా బాగానే గెలిచినా సంస్థాగత లోపాలు బయటపడ్డాయి. అది ఈ పార్టీ కి మేలుకొలుపు లాంటిది. కానీ ఈ ఎన్నికలని పార్టీల అసలు బలంగా భావించాల్సిన పనిలేదు. పంచాయితీ ఎన్నికలలో పార్టీ బలం కన్నా అక్కడి స్థానిక పరిస్థితులకే ఎక్కువ ప్రాధాన్యం వుంటుంది. కాబట్టి ఎవరూ ఎక్కువ ఆనందించాల్సిన విషయం కాని, బాధపడాల్సిన విషయం కాని లేదు. 

వై.ఎస్.ఆర్  కాంగ్రెస్ తెలంగాణ మీద దృష్టి పెట్టాల్సి వుంది. వచ్చే అసెంబ్లీ ఎన్నికలలో అధికారంలో కి రావాలంటే జగన్ పార్టీకి ఇది చాలా అవసరం. జైలు నుంచే ఈ మాత్రం గెలవగాలిగిన జగన్ బయటకు వస్తే పూర్తిగా చక్రం తిప్పగలడు. మొండివాడు రాజు కంటే బలవంతుడు అని ఒక సామెత వుంది.. కాంగ్రెస్ తో రాజీ పడటం కంటే జైలు జీవితమే ఎంచుకొన్న జగన్ యువతలో మంచి ఇమేజ్ సంపాడించిన మాట వాస్తవం. అది వై.ఎస్.ఆర్  కాంగ్రెస్ కి మన్చి ప్లస్ కావొచ్చు. 

ఇదే పరిస్తితి కొనసాగితే వచ్చే అసెంబ్లీ ఎలక్షన్స్ లో హాంగ్ తప్పకపోవచ్చు. అప్పడు అందరు రాజులే. 

CNNIBN: July 2013 Opinion Poll Karnataka, Tamilnadu & Andhra Pradesh

What the data says:

- Without any allies, Jayalaithaa will win half the seats in Tamilnadu

- DMK suffers a massive swing away of 9%

- Congress and BJP receiving a bounce, the BJP a much more significant bounce

Our Analysis

This is all meaningless analysis. Tamilnadu is all about alliances. The fact is Jayalaithaa has rubbed the wrong way her allies of 2011 and find it difficult to create a viable alliance.

The vote shares all look extremely dubious. N Ram, the editor of The Hindu described as "living in wonderland" the projections of BJP at 10% with hardly any base or organization in the state.  Consider this with the CNNIBN projection of BJP vote share in Karnataka where the party has a very good base at just 20% by the same survey.

What really looks far-fetched is the projection of DMK vote share below 20%, leave alone 16% as actually projected by CNNIBN.  This would make Congress the number two party in the state a claim which will find little takers.

The significant omission of the study is the non-provision of the vote shares of Vijay Kant’s DMDK and PMK who together should account for at least 25% of the vote share.

The intentions of the survey appear to re-polarise Tamilnadu politics through using opinion polls as a tool. . What is overlooked is that Tamilnadu elections are basically bi-polar in character - a fight between two coalitions whole poles are headed by DMK and AIADMK respectively.  The aim of CNNIBN appear to make it a tri-polar contest by:

-       Inducing AIADMK to align with the BJP

-       Inducing a Congress headed alliance with Vijay Kant’s DMDK and PMK and others

-      Reducing  DMK alliance prospects and thereby in turn triggering their supporters to migrate mostly to the Congress and to the lesser extent AIADMK who they may see as having better chances of winning.

Whosoever’s idea this was, it was a hare brained one as it fools no one even the panellists in the programme. Overall it is best to totally ignore CNNIBN’s projections for Tamilnadu and treat it as tamasha.

What the data says:

The Congress accourding to this survey commands a whopping 47% vote share to BJP’s 20%???

Our Analysis

Like in Tamilnadu, the intention of CNNIBN appears to condition the electoral line-up:

-       By over-estimating the Congress vote share at 47%, the survey is egging on the party to go it alone

-     By under-estimating the BJP’s vote share, it is forcing the party to take back Yedduruppa and Reddy brothers

So what could be the actual intention of CNNIBN? 

Once Yedurruppa and Reddy brothers return to the fold of BJP, the latter loses its corruption edge nationally though the step itself would provide little dividend to the BJP at the state level who will still get soundly thrashed

Has anyone bought the CNNIBN projections for Karnataka?  No chance, but it is more believable  than its Tamilnadu projections 

What the data says:

The Congress despite split and loss of YSR still retain their popularity in the state despite a swing away of -7%.

The Congress wins Andhra Coast; the YSR Congress wins Rayalaseema while the TRS win Telegana.

Our Analysis

Significantly, the Congress and YSR Congress vote shares cumulative is a whopping 52% which is an 11% swing to the Congress, if it remained united.

From the above data, from post-poll elections with YSR Congress and TRS, the Congress can retain their 2009 showing of 33 seats. If TRS and YSR Congress merges with the Congress or enter into a pre-poll alliance with the Congress, the Congress would sweep the state more convincingly than 2009.

Overall, the Congress vote share looks over-estimated and those of YSR Congress under-estimated. Either way, the Congress can take alot of comfort with the survey results.

CNNIBN: July 2013 Opinion Poll - West Bengal & Bihar

What the data says:  

- The greatest loser is the Left parties by way of vote and seat shares

- The Congress and the BJP is the principal beneficiary of the Left losses by way of vote shares. The Congress marginally picks up 1-2 seats, while BJP performance remains unchanged

- The TMC holds on to its 2009 vote share and even marginally improves upon it but in terms of seats, improves by around 6 seats

Our Analysis: 

- These projections have to be taken with a pinch of salt. Traditionally every opinion and exit poll tended to under-estimate the Left while over-estimating its opposition (formerly the Congress, then Congress-TMC). This was also true in the Assembly elections of 2011. 

-  Even in 2011 Assembly Polls, the Left secured nearly 42%. Even if there is some bounce for the both the national parties, it is only a fair assumption that the Left should be at least neck-to-neck with the TMC, if not possessing a marginal lead with the bounce for both the national parties over-estimated.

-  Either way, it is clear the Congress is the king maker in West Bengal.  If it arrives at a pre-poll alliance with either the Left or TMC, it will be clean sweep for the UPA.

What the data says:

- CNNIBN projects the Bihar scenario has mainly a 3-way fight among JD[U]; RJD and BJP with JD[U] possessing a marginal vote share lead but a more significant seat share lead.

- The BJP is projected to gain a massive 8% vote swing though may end up 3 seats less than 2009.

Our Analysis:

- Though the CNNIBN telecast projected the JD[U] marginally leading the Lalu Prasad’s RJD, it fails to factor in Paswan’s LJP and when combined indicates a clear lead for the RJD-LJP alliance.

- In June, RJD's Prabhunath Singhswept the Maharajganj Lok Sabha by-poll with a massive 1.36 lakh vote margin. This was much before the JD[U]-BJP split. This result indicates the JD[U]-BJP government was already facing huge incumbency before the split, which should rub off on both the partners.

- A fair assessment is that RJD-LJP has a clear lead and could get as much as over 20 seats with JD[U] reduced to 10 seats. The BJP can suffer bigger losses than projected by the poll.

- Like in west Bengal, the Congress is kingmaker. If it arrives at a pre-poll alliance with either the JD[U] or RJD, it will be clean sweep for the UPA.