What the data says:- Without any allies, Jayalaithaa will win half the seats in Tamilnadu- DMK suffers a massive swing away of 9%- Congress and BJP receiving a bounce, the BJP a much more significant bounceOur AnalysisThis is all meaningless analysis. Tamilnadu is all about alliances. The fact is Jayalaithaa has rubbed the wrong way her allies of 2011 and find it difficult to create a viable alliance.The vote shares all look extremely dubious. N Ram, the editor of The Hindu described as "living in wonderland" the projections of BJP at 10% with hardly any base or organization in the state. Consider this with the CNNIBN projection of BJP vote share in Karnataka where the party has a very good base at just 20% by the same survey.What really looks far-fetched is the projection of DMK vote share below 20%, leave alone 16% as actually projected by CNNIBN. This would make Congress the number two party in the state a claim which will find little takers.The significant omission of the study is the non-provision of the vote shares of Vijay Kant’s DMDK and PMK who together should account for at least 25% of the vote share.The intentions of the survey appear to re-polarise Tamilnadu politics through using opinion polls as a tool. . What is overlooked is that Tamilnadu elections are basically bi-polar in character - a fight between two coalitions whole poles are headed by DMK and AIADMK respectively. The aim of CNNIBN appear to make it a tri-polar contest by:- Inducing AIADMK to align with the BJP- Inducing a Congress headed alliance with Vijay Kant’s DMDK and PMK and others- Reducing DMK alliance prospects and thereby in turn triggering their supporters to migrate mostly to the Congress and to the lesser extent AIADMK who they may see as having better chances of winning.Whosoever’s idea this was, it was a hare brained one as it fools no one even the panellists in the programme. Overall it is best to totally ignore CNNIBN’s projections for Tamilnadu and treat it as tamasha.
What the data says:The Congress accourding to this survey commands a whopping 47% vote share to BJP’s 20%???Our AnalysisLike in Tamilnadu, the intention of CNNIBN appears to condition the electoral line-up:- By over-estimating the Congress vote share at 47%, the survey is egging on the party to go it alone- By under-estimating the BJP’s vote share, it is forcing the party to take back Yedduruppa and Reddy brothersSo what could be the actual intention of CNNIBN?Once Yedurruppa and Reddy brothers return to the fold of BJP, the latter loses its corruption edge nationally though the step itself would provide little dividend to the BJP at the state level who will still get soundly thrashedHas anyone bought the CNNIBN projections for Karnataka? No chance, but it is more believable than its Tamilnadu projections
What the data says:The Congress despite split and loss of YSR still retain their popularity in the state despite a swing away of -7%.The Congress wins Andhra Coast; the YSR Congress wins Rayalaseema while the TRS win Telegana.Our AnalysisSignificantly, the Congress and YSR Congress vote shares cumulative is a whopping 52% which is an 11% swing to the Congress, if it remained united.From the above data, from post-poll elections with YSR Congress and TRS, the Congress can retain their 2009 showing of 33 seats. If TRS and YSR Congress merges with the Congress or enter into a pre-poll alliance with the Congress, the Congress would sweep the state more convincingly than 2009.
Overall, the Congress vote share looks over-estimated and those of YSR Congress under-estimated. Either way, the Congress can take alot of comfort with the survey results.