CNNIBN: July 2013 Opinion Poll - West Bengal & Bihar

What the data says:  

- The greatest loser is the Left parties by way of vote and seat shares

- The Congress and the BJP is the principal beneficiary of the Left losses by way of vote shares. The Congress marginally picks up 1-2 seats, while BJP performance remains unchanged

- The TMC holds on to its 2009 vote share and even marginally improves upon it but in terms of seats, improves by around 6 seats

Our Analysis: 

- These projections have to be taken with a pinch of salt. Traditionally every opinion and exit poll tended to under-estimate the Left while over-estimating its opposition (formerly the Congress, then Congress-TMC). This was also true in the Assembly elections of 2011. 

-  Even in 2011 Assembly Polls, the Left secured nearly 42%. Even if there is some bounce for the both the national parties, it is only a fair assumption that the Left should be at least neck-to-neck with the TMC, if not possessing a marginal lead with the bounce for both the national parties over-estimated.

-  Either way, it is clear the Congress is the king maker in West Bengal.  If it arrives at a pre-poll alliance with either the Left or TMC, it will be clean sweep for the UPA.

What the data says:

- CNNIBN projects the Bihar scenario has mainly a 3-way fight among JD[U]; RJD and BJP with JD[U] possessing a marginal vote share lead but a more significant seat share lead.

- The BJP is projected to gain a massive 8% vote swing though may end up 3 seats less than 2009.

Our Analysis:

- Though the CNNIBN telecast projected the JD[U] marginally leading the Lalu Prasad’s RJD, it fails to factor in Paswan’s LJP and when combined indicates a clear lead for the RJD-LJP alliance.

- In June, RJD's Prabhunath Singhswept the Maharajganj Lok Sabha by-poll with a massive 1.36 lakh vote margin. This was much before the JD[U]-BJP split. This result indicates the JD[U]-BJP government was already facing huge incumbency before the split, which should rub off on both the partners.

- A fair assessment is that RJD-LJP has a clear lead and could get as much as over 20 seats with JD[U] reduced to 10 seats. The BJP can suffer bigger losses than projected by the poll.

- Like in west Bengal, the Congress is kingmaker. If it arrives at a pre-poll alliance with either the JD[U] or RJD, it will be clean sweep for the UPA.